A tracker for market sentiment reached “extreme greed” levels on Thursday, which has historically preceded market corrections.

Normally, a $21 billion equity offering by a company only worth just over double that amount would tank the issuer’s stock price. But the economics around corporate America’s biggest bitcoin bull are different.

Token unlocking events usually weigh on prices, but multi-month reaccumulation, crowded shorts and bullish crypto prices could lead to a surprise rally, analyst said.